Wikileaks: В бассейне с министром!!!

The Global Intelligence Files: Как Китай покоряет Туркмению

Wikileaks и РР публикуют блестящий образец романтического шпионажа в духе Мата Хари (#1687728). Файл содержит необычное сообщение: ключевой работник Stratfor с «источниками» в евразийском регионе Лорен Гудрич оказалась в одном плавательном бассейне с министром энергетики Туркменистана, который с удовольствием поделился информацией о влиянии России и Китая в этой стране. 

Я случайно буквально наткнулась на министра энергетики Туркменистана в плавательном бассейне, где мы оба нарезали круги. Чтобы поговорить, мы отправились к бортику (кода источника я не присваиваю, поскольку, естественно, он не будет регулярным источником)

Мы начали с легкого разговора о том, у каких стран есть проекты, согласившись, что Россия многое урвала из инфраструктуры, зато Китай получил некоторые весьма реалистичные месторождения, такие, как Южный Иолотань, в котором, по его словам, содержатся запасы газа величиной в 6 трлн кубометров (что делает месторождение по величине пятым в мире). Китай заплатил за это $3 миллиарда.

Потом я заговорила о том, как русские продолжают перекрывать пути сбыта газа. Он сказал, что возвращается в Ашхабад в четверг, и что там будет присутствовать на встрече Бердымухамедова и Зубкова (он в последнее время главная фигура со стороны Кремля в вопросах туркмено-российских отношений). Зубков уже в Ашхабаде и планирует оставаться там столько, сколько необходимо для того, чтобы урегулировать дела с туркменами.

Я спросила: если дела могут быть урегулированы с этой позиции, то какого черта этого до сих пор не случилось. Он сказал, что не знает, но когда он говорил с Бердымухамедовым о русских, то президент был в бешенстве и исходил желчью по поводу их попыток так с ним обращаться.

Затем я заговорила о довольно неудобном для него предмете: страна теряет миллиард за месяц, что может угрожать банкротством. Он от души рассмеялся, и сказал, что все будет просто замечательно. Что их ситуация выглядит действительно ужасно только в этот последний месяц. Туркменский премьер Мередов ездил в Европу в поисках каких-то решений (кредитов МВФ и пр.), но не получил вообще никакой помощи.

Тогда Мередов поехал в Китай, чтобы завершить сделку по Иокотану, но договорился еще об одной сделке, согласно которой Китай выдает кредит Туркмении в размере $3-5 миллиардов. Условия сделки еще не утверждены, но Китай обещает быстро решить вопрос с переводом, а это ровно то, в чем сейчас нуждается Ашхабад.

Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

1687728

From marko.papic@stratfor.com

To rbaker@stratfor.com

goodrich@stratfor.com

reva.bhalla@stratfor.com

eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com

secure@stratfor.com

Others MessageId: <1727209120.6966651245774117799.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>

InReplyTo: BFD8C5FC-090D-42AD-B7DE-B1C3074B13E7@stratfor.com

Text

Yeah, think about it... the financial "groundwork" does not in any way

shape or form easily translate into military framework... You're talking

about Russia's soft underbelly. If this was Africa, or Latin America, or

some equally distant place where the Beijing and Moscow were starting off

on the same level, I would agree with you Reva.

----- Original Message -----

From: "Rodger Baker"

To: "Reva Bhalla"

Cc: "Marko Papic" , "Lauren Goodrich"

, "Secure List" , "Eugene

Chausovsky"

Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:19:42 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia

Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

its gonna take a hell of a paradigm shift for the chinese to deploy troops

into central asia to take on the russians.

On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:16 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

if China lays the financial groundwork now in Central Asia, what stops

Beijingfrom raising that to a military level down the line? Would it

necessarily be deterred by the Russians every time?

On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:15 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

Again though, Russia feels that it can... on a long enough of a

timeline... overcome any Chinese influence built up by loans to the

region. I am not saying that this PoV is going to prove correct for

Russia, just that this is how Russia thinks.

Therefore, how is this latest Chinese loan any different from Chinese

presence in the region in the past 5 years. Russia has allowed all of

it to come to pass because they feel they can swoop in and reap the

benefits at a later point when the investments bear fruits.

The question there is whether that is the point when Russia and China

start having some real beef... whether such conflict is "built-in" by

the Russian attitude right now. But that is an alltogether different

question.

----- Original Message -----

From: "Reva Bhalla"

To: "Rodger Baker"

Cc: "Marko Papic" , "Lauren Goodrich"

, "Secure List" , "Eugene

Chausovsky"

Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:10:37 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia

Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

I asked the same thing. Lauren said separate. and turkmenistan isn't

in SCO

On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:09 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

china was never harmless, though, which is what I was saying. But

russiawould allow China to play around because eventually perhaps

Russiastill has the upper hand in influence, and can gain more

control over assets in region. That said, China is making numerous

cash offers - do we know, for example, if this loan is under the

recent deal China announced at SCO or separate?

But what will russia do in return? it aint gonna attack china. it

did (again) delay its pipeline in the north to China.

On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:07 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

it's thrown money, but we're in a slightly different context now.

The region is getting hammered by the financial crisis and Russia

has gone out of its way to screw turkmenistan. Then here comes

Chinato the rescue.

that's not very harmless from moscow's PoV, at least in my mind

On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:56 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

Careful?

Chinahas thrown money after central asia. it is only careful in

that it doesnt send troops like russia does.

On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:52 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

now how does this balance out with Russian security guarantees

for the Central Asians?

Chinahas always been very careful in treading on Moscow's

turf. Isn't this the kind of thing that would escalate

tensions?

On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:49 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

Nice, the Chinese are a real alternative to BOTH IMF and

Russia... plus they have more money essentially than both.

Eugene, take note of this situation... Good to maybe mention

in the overall Russian loan piece.

----- Original Message -----

From: "Lauren Goodrich"

To: "Secure List" , "Eugene Chausovsky"

Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 10:24:02 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia

Subject: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

I literally and accidentally ran into the Turkmen energy

minister in the swimming pool today while we were both doing

lapsa*| we got to talking on the side of the pool. (no code

bc he won't be a regular source of course)

We started off lightly talking about who is getting projects

in the country with him confirming Russia snagging a lot of

the infrastructure, but that China is getting some very real

projects like South Yolotan field which he says holds 6 tcm

(which would make it one of the top 5 deposits in the

world). China will pay $3 billion for it.

Then I brought up the continued Russian cut-off of natural

gas. He said that hea**ll return to Ashgabat on Thursday

where hea**ll be in meetings with Beredimukhammedov and

Zubkov(who is pretty much in charge of Russo-Turkmen

relations for the Kremlin now). Zubkov is already in

Ashgabat and is planning on staying a**as long as needed to

get things sorteda** with the Turkmen.

I asked if thing could get sorted with Russia in a hell of a

position and not budging yet. He said he did not know but

that when he talked to Berdimukhammedov about the Russians

that the prez was a**furiousa** at Russiaa**s gall to treat

them this way.

I then very uncomfortably brought up the fact that theya**re

losing a billion a month and that this could potentially

bankrupt their country. He smiled really big and said that

they would be just fine. That their situation looked

terrible this past month. Turkmen FM Meredov had gone and

talked to the Europeans a few weeks ago to see if they had

any solutions (meaning IMF loans, etc.), but that they were

no help at all.

So Meredov went to China last week striking the Yolotan

deal, but also another deal in which China would a**loana**

Turkemenistan $3-5 billion. The terms have not been

finalized, but China said they could get them the cash

quickly, which is what Ashgabat needs.

--

Lauren Goodrich

Director of Analysis

Senior Eurasia Analyst

STRATFOR

T: 512.744.4311

F: 512.744.4334

lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.co

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